Six Insights into how Nigeria’s 2019 Presidential Results Might Swing

Power resides where (wo)men believe it resides. — Lord Varys, Game of Thrones

As the 2019 Presidential Election is scheduled to hold on February 16, 2019, a lot of assumptions are on the cards on how the election might turn out. However, it is important to look at past trends to truly understand: What are the factors that may determine the presidential election results? Let us begin.

South-West: Will the “Owanbe” people turn up?

In 2011 and 2015, the South-West region had the lowest voter turnout among all the geopolitical zones. It was also the zone with well-split votes among the parties, making them swing states. However, with all the states being governed by the single party (for the first time since 1999), will South-West buck the trend and become a traditional base of the ruling party? Would the APC Vice-Presidential candidate who is from the region, who has been travelling around SW towns, have an effect on the votes and how large can the margin be? For all the euphoria of President Buhari’s election in South-West in 2015, he had a margin of 611,000 votes, lower than the combined margin in North-Central states at 705,911. Lagos margin for the presidential election was slightly above 160,000 votes.

There are also political maestros in Ekiti, Osun, Ogun who might not wield power in the entire state but control sizeable blocs to show appearance. The size of the margin will be an important element for the bloc to negotiate for its current ruling party APC VP candidate in the 2023 elections. There is also the question of divided votes among other candidates from the region — Sowore is a popular candidate among students while Fela Durotoye also has his following. What will their impact be?

South-South: Akpabio’s Transfer, Amaechi’s Strength and Oshiomole’s Willpower

In 2011 and 2015 elections, the South-South had the best turnout in terms of votes (see chart above). One can pin this to the effect of the support for the “son of the soil” running for office in the ruling political party but what will it look like when none of the big contenders is from there? The biggest transfer of the 2019 election is Akpabio, whose state had the third-largest margin (after Delta and River) for Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. Amaechi could not pull off the numbers in 2015 as Bayelsa, carved out of Rivers, still sees Jonathan as their own. Lest we also forget, Jonathan’s wife is from Rivers State. Will the South-South give have the same turnout as before? With the silence of the creeks, Maritime University projects and other investments, will it make a dent on a traditional PDP stronghold? What can Oshiomhole, the party chair, who marginally lost his state to PDP in 2015 by a margin of 78,000 votes, do for his party in the state and the zone?

North-East: An Old Friend, A Son of the Zone and the Scourge of Boko Haram

Atiku is from Adamawa state, one of the states ravaged by Boko Haram. Data shows that Boko Haram crisis is no longer as terrible as it was in 2015. However, let no one fool you, they have not been defeated or technically defeated. But, what is the impact of this on the incumbent’s possible return? What is also the strength of Atiku Abubakar in his state? Adamawa has not been a clear stronghold of any party In the last election, as it provided the second largest votes for Jonathan in North-East region in 2015 and PDP also won 2011 elections in the state, a period Atiku was still in the party. Will the old love for the Waziri of Adamawa burn hot again?

Buhari has a history of pulling off votes from the total North-East votes, enjoying the largest margins. In the region, he got 67% of the votes cast during the Presidential Election in 2011 and 78% of votes in 2015. However, does geo-politics also work for North-East? Like the South-South stumped for their son in 2011 and 2015, will there be a pattern in 2019 elections and how wide will the margins be? Bauchi has always given the president the largest margins, with 1.3m votes in 2011 and 931,000 votes in 2015. With a lot of Buhari’s appointments from Bauchi, will this translate to electoral fortunes? It is a space to pay attention to. It is also important to note that Buhari’s North East numbers shrunk in 2015, compared to 2011

North-Central: A Re-swing or Permanence?

The North-Central is a riddle that only time can unravel; we have to wait to understand it. It is the swing region that would offer insights in 2019. While Niger state is the outlier in the North-Central zone and has been solidly behind Buhari; until 2015, most North-Central states were solidly PDP states. The Boko Haram scourge overshadowed the gruelling crisis in most of the North-Central states and the inability of the previous Nigerian government to secure the region. However, the perennial crisis has not abated and the Buhari government also did not offer decisive action when it mattered. Nasarawa and Benue states have experienced continued farmer-herdsmen crises; Plateau has also not been trouble-free.

There are always long memories on such issues and it can throw up the indigene-settler dichotomy which politicians have unfavourably exploited. Are the people of North-Central satisfied with the performance of the current administration? Will the seemingly viral “Otoge” movement in Kwara, have any impact considering the perennial influence of the Saraki dynasty since 1979? Buhari grew his Benue numbers from 109,680 in 2011 to 373,961 in 2015 and from 83,603 in 2011 to 302,146 in Kwara. What will the counter-weight in Lai Mohammed offer?

South East: Nnamdi Kanu and the Peter Obi effect

The South-East had a stunning reduction in votes in 2015. The big question has been how did the total South-East votes shrink from 4.98m votes to 2.46m votes, a 50% reduction in an election cycle. My thoughts would pin it on the use of card reader and the strength of APGA to compete for NASS elections that held the same day. APGA has kept its traditional state but there’s no hiding that the State Governor and Peter Obi are not on terms for political fortunes. The 2nd Niger Bridge has also been wielded effectively but it is important to see how the results pan out. I also suspect reluctance in the SE PDP Governors, mainly Abia and Ebonyi and not to also rule out the Rochas effect. It seems still as a PDP stronghold but would Nnamdi Kanu statement suppress voter turnout in IPOB “strongholds” like Imo and Abia? How large can the margin be considering what Jonathan had in 2011 or do we wait for another reduction in voters? It is curious to know that South-East had one the largest growth in voters registration but did they collect their PVCs?

North-West: The Critical Battle Looms

From the Zamfara, Sokoto, Katsina axis, North-West has been facing multiple attacks from bandits, creating an emergency situation. President Buhari got a record 1.68m margin in Kano and this has been a talking point. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso has a viral movement that shocks anyone with the red cap insignia. How far can Kwankwaso’s movement dent Buhari’s chances in Kano? While uncertainty might pervade Atiku to deliver his state, Buhari had 1.34m votes in Katsina in 2015. However, the opposition had an encouraging crowd in Katsina. What will be the impact of Southern Kaduna votes that has always had a dissenting approach to the voting, cut down what would have been the looming lead of Buhari in the zone to 5.77m margin over his opponent in 2015? Many analysts say that with the red cap Kwankwaso/Sule Lamido movement, such a convincing margin does not exist again for Buhari.

I have no predictions on who will win but I will like to see where Nigerians pitch their tent. Most importantly, I hope the election is free and fair and the decision of a credible major candidate is upheld. May Nigeria win.